It will surely outsell the last Pearl Jam cd. So by that comparison it will do well.
It really depends on what his voice sounds like. Casual fans(yes you need them to do well commercially) will respond to that the strongest. I think if he sang the zwan cd with all the sweet sighs and production of say SD days it would of done VERY WELL. But most people don't care for the way he sang on that record even though it had lots of drums, riffs, solos, etc.
I think it will be debut at #1 in the country but quickly fall off the charts. The way billy is talking I think promotional bs like mtv interviews and all that will be very rare. He said his plan for the new pumpkins will be unconventional which usually means the mainstream won't 'get it.'
I really wish he would just do what he said in an interview once. He mentioned putting all the songs he had worked on online. The fans would be able to hear all those songs and after a period of time vote on which ones should be on the album. That way he can exist as a experimental artist and a commercial one. I really thought that would be awesome. Maybe a 30 a year annual fee to be a 'voting member'. Real fans get to pick the best songs. I think that would also help him commercially while us hardcore people get all the bside goodness as well. When he releases the cd, the voters would get it for free and the other songs on a limited edition disc too. Oh the possibilities.
I think most of us can agree that the past albums would be a lot different if we were given that influence.
For example, Take me down would of never made it onto MCIS.